The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm xgboost_custom
mae 0.066 0.075 0.085 0.070 0.088
cor 0.875 0.868 0.833 0.862 0.858
ratio_of_sd 0.856 0.929 0.808 0.870 1.014
KGE 0.811 0.775 0.687 0.800 0.562
amplitude_mae 0.156 0.128 0.220 0.142 0.126
maximum_difference 6.203 6.306 6.287 6.296 6.004
sign_correlation 0.601 0.551 0.597 0.597 0.579
extreme_correlation 0.582 0.689 0.519 0.639 0.645
amount_rainy_hours_mae 1.553 1.551 2.227 1.685 2.623
qqplot_mae 0.021 0.021 0.040 0.022 0.049
acf_mae 0.096 0.059 0.144 0.075 0.097
extremogram_mae 0.061 0.033 0.073 0.030 0.047

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97